Ventos vindos de fora...

«Portugal is doing better than Greece in its budget deficit (9.4% of GDP in 2009, compared with 12.7%) and public debt (85% of GDP this year, against 124% in Greece). Unlike Greece, its public accounts are credible and it has a record of taking tough fiscal measures when necessary—between 2005 and 2007, it cut its budget deficit in half, from 6.1% of GDP to 2.6%. A four-year austerity programme to chop the budget deficit again, this time to 2.8% of GDP in 2013, has been adopted.

Again unlike Greece, the centre-left government of José Sócrates is a pioneer of reform. It has linked pensions to changes in life expectancy and introduced incentives for later retirement. According to the European Commission, age-related public spending will rise by only 2.9% of GDP in Portugal over the next 50 years, compared with a euro-area average of 5.1% and a startling 16% in Greece. Despite some public-sector protests, opposition to spending cuts is less noisy than in Greece.

So why are markets fretting over Lisbon’s debt burden (yields on two-year bonds have risen to 4.8%)? And why have such figures as Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist, and Nouriel Roubini, a New York economics professor once labelled Dr Doom, said that a Greek-style crisis could infect Portugal?»

In The Economist



«Portugal "is not yet playing in the same league as Greece," says Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Bank in Brussels. Portugal's borrowing costs may be rising, but they aren't leading to a pressing liquidity shortfall, as in Greece's case, Mr. Brzeski says.

The yield on Greek 10-year government bonds rose to 8.7% last week from about 7.4% the prior week, prompting Greece's request Friday for an aid package of as much as €45 billion ($60.22 billion) from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Portugal's predicament appears significantly less acute. Its overall public debt is close to 80% of GDP, while's Greece's surpassed 110% of GDP last year.

The Portuguese government is slated to borrow around €20 billion to €22 billion from bond markets this year, less than half of Greece's borrowing needs.

[...]

Portugal also has a better track record than Greece at improving its public finances, even in a weak economic environment.

The EU has officially warned Portugal three times in the past decade for running budget deficits that broke the EU's limit of 3% of GDP.

Under pressure from Germany and France, Lisbon brought its deficit below 3% in 2008, despite persistently weak economic growth that averaged around 0.8% a year from 2002 to 2008.

That experience makes Portugal's promises of budget cuts more credible now, analysts say. Many investors doubt Greece can do the same.»

In The Wall Street Journal...